Does 25% odds that things go really badly with AI make you worried? It should, right?
Hey Dario — you really do seem like a good guy. But you’re predicting a pretty extreme level of potential disaster from AI. On the one hand, I appreciate your honesty. But I also want to make sure you realize that Washington, DC isn't going to solve the problems you're creating.
Honestly, I really do love AI — and at this point, I could never live without it. But the more I listen to Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic (one of the leading AI companies), the more nervous I become.
By Mike Reid | September 2025
Ok. I’m sorry, Dario, but did I hear you right?
Did you say there’s a 25% chance of catastrophic, society-collapsing problems from AI….or did you mean 0.25%?
Because if it’s 25%, that’s flat-out insane.
And if it’s 0.25%? Honestly, I don’t love it either.
Why?
Ok. Here's a thought exercise:
Imagine you fly from San Francisco to DC to warn policymakers there’s a 0.25% chance that AI goes really, really badly.
And then, mission accomplished, you board your flight home.
But then, right before takeoff, the pilot announces there’s a 0.25% chance the flight goes “really, really badly.”
You’d be off the plane in seconds, right?
Even if the odds of your plane meeting catastrophic doom at some point in its lifespan were 0.25%, you’d still get off the plane, right?
So yeah — even 0.25% odds are kind of worrisome when you're talking about existential collapse, right?
And just to be 100% clear….you did say 0.25% — not 25%, right?